St. Lawrence County
Economic Development Study
December 2015
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015
A Vision for St. Lawrence County
St. Lawrence County will be a leader among rural counties
for healthy, diversified, and sustainable economic development.
We will create a strong economy with vibrant small business
growth, increased tourism and recreation, re-purposed manufac-
turing, and sustainable and diversified agriculture, capitalizing on
our current strengths, assets, and attributes. The results will be
jobs, opportunities, and growth for our community.
The St. Lawrence County Economic Development Study Advisory Board
Contents
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................2
1. Background .......................................................................................................................4
Context and Summary of Diagnostic Findings ......................................................5
Selection and Prioritization Methodology ............................................................... 9
2. An Economic Development Blueprint for St. Lawrence County .................... 11
Vision and Portfolio of Economic Development Strategies ............................. 11
Impact Potential ............................................................................................................ 13
Investment Required and Sources of Funds ........................................................ 15
3. Next Steps ...................................................................................................................... 16
Governance ....................................................................................................................16
Long-term Implementation Milestones ..................................................................17
Appendix: Supporting Materials .................................................................................. 19
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 1
Cover photos Left to Right: North Country Dairy in North Lawrence; Massena
neighborhood; boaters at Whittaker Park, Waddington, New York.
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 2
Executive Summary
This Study, commissioned by the New York Power Authority
(NYPA), sets out a five-year economic development strategy
for St. Lawrence County. NYPA has a long-standing commit-
ment to the County—particularly the river communities of
Louisville, Massena, and Waddington—to ensure continued
economic development and best use of the many assets in
the region. NYPA funded this study as part of its commit-
ment under the first 10-year review of the Relicensing
Settlement Agreement.
St. Lawrence County has faced challenging times over
the past five years. It has trailed peers and the state on
many macroeconomic indicators, including annual employ-
ment, gross domestic product growth, and poverty rates.
Industry is concentrated in non-tradable sectors like govern-
ment and healthcare, with above-average vacancy rates on
main streets. The agricultural sector is highly dependent on
volatile dairy prices, and the areas manufacturing sector
has experienced a significant decline.
The time for economic renewal is now. Despite recent
challenges, St. Lawrence County has many assets—partic-
ularly its abundant and low-cost power, water, and land;
high-caliber universities; and natural beauty—all of which
can serve as a base on which to build economic success in
the years ahead. Add in the many supportive trends (e.g.,
technological advances in manufacturing, heightened value
of ample water for agriculture) and an unprecedented level
of commitment from the Governor’s oce for upstate
revitalization, and St. Lawrence County has a unique
opportunity to reshape its economic future.
Through an economic development study blueprint
composed of a portfolio of mutually supportive strategies
emphasizing vibrant small business growth, increased
tourism and recreation, re-focused manufacturing, and
sustainable and diversified agriculture, St. Lawrence County
could create 1,000 to 1,900 new jobs and $105 million
to $190 million in annual incremental GDP by 2020 and
become a leader among rural counties in the region for
healthy, diversified, and sustainable economic development.
Accelerating Agriculture and Agri-business: Through
diversification and increased productivity, both within and
beyond the dairy business, the agricultural sector could
add 225 to 465 jobs over the next five years, and grow
GDP up to $60 million in 2020. The signature initiative,
which centers on greenhouse attraction, could create
more than 200 jobs and grow GDP by close to $18 million
in 2020.
Renew Manufacturing: With initiatives to attract
new firms, develop the existing St. Lawrence County
workforce, and build an innovation collaboration fund, the
manufacturing sector could create 230 to 580 jobs over
the next five years, and grow GDP by close to $80 million
in 2020. The signature initiative, enhanced firm attraction,
could create more than 300 jobs and grow GDP by close
to $35 million in 2020.
Left to Right: North Country Dairy in North Lawrence; New York raised cow.
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 3
Expand Rural Small Business: By scaling existing
growth-oriented businesses, helping residents start new
small businesses, and adding entrepreneurial K-20
education curricula, small business could create more than
600 new jobs over the next five years and grow GDP by
at least $28 million by 2020. The signature initiative, the
Entrepreneur Accelerator, could create up to 150 new jobs
and grow GDP by close to $7 million by 2020.
Revitalize Communities, Tourism, and Mindset:
Revitalization and tourism could rebuild main streets and
accelerate eorts to attract tourists, create more than
200 jobs over five years and grow GDP by more than $25
million by 2020.
This portfolio of strategies requires substantial resources
for implementation, as much as $300-400 million over
five years. The great majority of this will be private invest-
ments and performance-based tax and other investment
incentives, though other public resources will also play
an important implementation role. The amount of public
funds required (not including investment incentives) will
vary considerably depending on the pace of execution,
prioritization, and final design of the strategies, though
could be as much as $30-40 million. St. Lawrence County
currently has access to local public sources of funds, but
they are fragmented, typically have mandated functions,
and are dicult for the average County resident to access.
In general, funds are administered by a number of invest-
ment attraction and economic development agencies
(EDAs) currently operating in St. Lawrence County.
The eort must be collective and focused. In the past, St.
Lawrence County has spread its resources thinly among
competing projects and across a host of strategies among
its many towns and villages. To make the best use of
these resources in the future, County leaders should
come together to implement a connected set of economic
development strategies and initiatives that can generate
renewal in St. Lawrence County’s economy. There is an
opportunity to streamline funding sources and enhance
current EDA capabilities, both for investment attraction
and broader delivery of economic development work.
Building on these existing funds and obtaining additional
funding through regional and state processes, there is the
potential for sucient money available to St. Lawrence
County for the public costs of implementation.
This study is organized into the following chapters:
Chapter 1 provides the background and objectives of the
study, a description of the stakeholder- focused strategy
development processes, a summary of the diagnostic
findings and the approach to prioritization and selection of
the final proposed strategies.
Chapter 2 introduces an economic development blueprint
with a vision for the County and the four strategies tailored
to the County’s assets and opportunities. These mutually
reinforcing strategies will accelerate growth in two priori-
tized sectors: agriculture and manufacturing. They are also
underpinned by cross-cutting enablers focused on foster-
ing small business, and main street businesses, as well as
revitalization of tourism.
Chapter 3 provides guidance on how to implement the
plan. This includes the overarching structures required to
create the appropriate capacity and capabilities to ensure
successful execution.
Appendix contains a glossary, methodologies, summary
of stakeholder outreach and catalogue of potential public
funding sources.
Apprentice job-shadowing at Alcoa switchyard.
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 4
1. Background
This document charts an exciting path for St. Lawrence
County’s economic growth and development. It is based on
a detailed examination of the regions current performance
and potential, and was developed with substantial engage-
ment and input from local stakeholders. This study was
developed in two phases: a “diagnostic” research phase to
establish a common fact base and preliminary set of strate-
gies, followed by a detailed “design” phase to fine-tune the
priority strategies and then craft proposed initiatives and
clear, actionable plans.
The diagnostic findings substantiated that the County has
faced dicult circumstances in recent years (e.g., declines
in manufacturing, low GDP growth), but that it also has
strong assets that can provide the foundation for vigorous
economic development in the years ahead. Critical assets in
the County include abundant, low-cost land and power, core
industries in manufacturing and agriculture, a concentration
of higher education institutions, and abundant natural assets
for outdoor activities and recreation.
Given a variety of trends supportive of rural renewal (e.g.,
technological advances supporting manufacturing growth,
changing consumer preferences and appreciation for local
produce, etc.) and an unprecedented level of commitment
from the Governor’s oce to upstate revitalization, St.
Lawrence County has a unique opportunity to reshape its
economic future.
Study objectives
For many years, NYPA has been, and continues to be,
committed to supporting economic development and
creating jobs across the North Country, specifically in
St. Lawrence County and the river communities.
NYPA is delivering on its commitment to the St. Lawrence
Local Government Taskforce to support the creation of
economic development strategies and a draft economic
development business plan for St. Lawrence County.
The study’s objective was to outline a transformational
economic development blueprint that could have a signifi-
cant regional impact on the St. Lawrence County economy
and meaningful return on investment of public and private
funds in the County.
How the study was developed
The study was conducted from March to July 2015.
The work was comprised of two main phases:
Diagnostic: Collection and review of existing studies and
data; face-to-face stakeholder engagement; expert inter-
views; best-practice and external research; quantitative
analysis and fact-based development.
Design: Strategy and initiative development, including
creation of strategy-specific design working groups,
further expert interviews and stakeholder conversations,
case study, best practice research, and preliminary
modeling.
The principles and best practices that governed the study
work plan included:
Locally owned: Engagement with community stake-
holders, including respected local leadership; initiative
co-development to ensure community support.
Tern habitat improvement.
Clarkson University, Potsdam, New York.
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 5
Data-driven: Development of an analytical fact base to
create a common understanding of the opportunities and
challenges.
Principles-based: Development and deployment of clear
criteria for investment decisions—to both endorse and
de-prioritize strategies and initiatives.
Aspirational: Ideas and targets should be bold and trans-
formational—and accompanied by clear and ambitious
impact targets—to raise aspirations and make evident the
scale of change possible.
The design of project leadership and advisory groups, as
well as the stakeholder management processes, ensured
extensive local interaction and input, and the incorporation
of the collective expertise in the County. At the outset of the
study, an Advisory Board was convened that provided criti-
cal input throughout the duration of the eort. The Advisory
Board consisted of 20 County leaders, representing a
cross-section of government, business, and higher-educa-
tion leaders (see Appendix for complete list of participants).
In addition to five working sessions with the Board during
the study, the group provided subject matter experts for
design teams” who oered input, along with other County
experts, to initiative design. Additionally, over the course
of the study, one-on-one meetings were held with a broad
representation of the areas communities and leadership.
All in all, more than 130 unique stakeholders were engaged
in more than 300 interactions over the four months of the
study. This helped ensure that local insight shaped the
proposed strategies, and provided a strong basis for stake-
holder support and momentum going forward.
Context and Summary of Diagnostic Findings
A detailed diagnostic was conducted to assess the current
state and recent trends of St. Lawrence County’s strengths,
assets and opportunities. Diagnostic research included
analysis through five market “lenses: 1. Economic sectors
and clusters, 2. Human capital, 3. Innovation and entrepre-
neurship, 4. Physical and virtual infrastructure, and 5. Public
and civic institutions (see Exhibit 1, below). Sectors refer to
defined business segments of an economy, such as agricul-
ture, health care or retail trade. Clusters are geographic
concentrations of interconnected businesses, suppliers, and
associated institutions in a particular field. Human capital
is the capabilities of a work force. Innovation and entrepre-
neurship are indicators of an economy’s ability to exploit
changes as opportunities for growth. These three drivers
(sectors, human capital and innovation) are related but
separate and each has an impact on economic growth. The
remaining two drivers, physical and virtual infrastructure and
public and civic institutions, are cross-cutting enablers that
aect the other drivers and economic growth. This analysis
was supplemented with a review of 20 peer counties and
relevant cross-cutting trends. This integrated diagnostic
provided a fact base for understanding the context and
needs of the County.
EXHIBIT 1: FIVE LENSES TO ASSESS THE COUNTY ECONOMY
EXHIBIT 1 : FIV E L ENSES T O A SSESS T HE COUN T Y ECON OMY
St. Lawrence County has endured tough times over the past several decades. A perfect storm of lower-
than-average population density, productivity, and education; concentration of economic activity in non-
tradable sectors like government and healthcare; and underutilization of plentiful physical assets has left
St. Lawrence trailing regional and national peer counties as they recover from the Great Recession.
To evaluate St. Lawrence County’s recent economic performance, a group of 20 U.S. counties was
chosen that most resemble the County. This peer group was identified using several criteria including size
and industry metrics (e.g., total GDP, GDP growth rate, population, employment, physical area, industry
concentration, etc.) as well as low urban influence. The peer group members, which include counties from
virtually all sections of the country, are listed below.
The metrics of St. Lawrence County’s economic recovery since 2009 were significantly lower than the
median of peers on GDP growth from 2009-14, and on employment growth as shown below.
Diagnosis of performance and health: Five key market
l
evers drive economic growth
Enablers
1. Economic
Sectors &
Clusters
2
. Human
Capital
3
. Innovation &
Entrepreneurship
4
. Physical &
Virtual
Infrastructure
5
. Public & Civic
Institutions
Concentrations of industries,
functions, firms, and
occupations
Talent production, attraction,
retention, and matching to jobs
Government efficiency
and efficacy
Business and institutional
environment
Tax value proposition
Innovation performance
Entrepreneurial ecosystem
Linkages and movement of
goods, people, and
information
F
ive Market Lenses
MARKET ANALYSIS
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 6
St. Lawrence County has endured tough times over the past
several decades. A perfect storm of lower-than-average
population density, productivity, and education; concen-
tration of economic activity in non-tradable sectors like
government and healthcare; and underutilization of plenti-
ful physical assets has left St. Lawrence trailing regional
and national peer counties as they recover from the Great
Recession.
To evaluate St. Lawrence County’s recent economic perfor-
mance, a group of 20 U.S. counties was chosen that most
resemble the County. This peer group was identified using
several criteria including size and industry metrics (e.g., total
GDP, GDP growth rate, population, employment, physical
area, industry concentration, etc.) as well as low urban
influence. The peer group members, which include counties
from virtually all sections of the country, are listed below.
The metrics of St. Lawrence County’s economic recovery
since 2009 were significantly lower than the median of
peers on GDP growth from 2009-14, and on employment
growth—as shown below.
EXHIBIT 2 : ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF ST . L A WRENCE COUNTY V ERSUS PEERS
1
While St. Lawrence County’s economy has struggled, some of its peer counties (which started in similar
situations in 2009) were more successful economically. The historical performance of these peer counties
shows it is possible to change the trajectory of economic development. Top-performing peers had a clear
economic development strategy linked to their assets, including taking advantage of tourist attractions and
universities.
St. Lawrence County has a clear set of assets upon which it can build. It is rich in low-cost agricultural
land and plentiful water supplies, at a time when many food-producing areas are undergoing water stress
and urban pressures. Abundant low-cost, clean power is available for industry from the St. Lawrence-
FDR Power Project. St. Lawrence is highly unusual for a county of its size in boasting five colleges and
universities that specialize in complementary areas, providing ample supplies of talent, and supporting
research and entrepreneurial activity in the region. Moreover, the natural beauty of the region across all
seasons is a draw for residents and visitors alike.
Below are additional details on the diagnostic results, organized along the five market lenses. This
information was critical for the development of the strategies and initiatives for economic development in
St. Lawrence County.
Economic sectors and clusters
1
Peer select ion st art ed wit h all 3,0 85 US count ies, t hen priorit ized based on similarit y t o St . Lawrence
County based on factors such as GDP per capit a, population, area, indust ry mix, and distance from urban
areas. Peer group was comprised of 20 counties.
shows that a change in trajectory is possible
Source: Moody’s Analytics
-1.1
-0.5
-0.4
-0.1
0.7
1.8
1.8
3.0
3.2
4.9
Median = 1.3%
Grant County (WI)
Raleigh County (WV)
Humboldt County (CA)
Twin Falls County (ID)
Gallatin County (MT)
Mendocino County (CA)
Tehama County (CA)
Tuolumne County (CA)
Coos County (OR)
Linn County (OR)
Clearfield County (PA)
Josephine County (OR)
Riley County (KS)
Hancock County (ME)
Northumberland County (PA)
Umatilla County (OR)
Athens County (OH)
Otter Tail County (MN)
Somerset County (PA)
Lauderdale County (MS)
S
t Lawrence County (NY)
GDP per capita growth
CAGR, 2009-2014
Employment growth
CAGR, 2009-2014
-0.3
-0.6
1.6
0.9
0.1
-0.2
0.9
1.0
0.6
0.9
0.6
1.1
2.8
0.8
0.8
-0.3
1.4
1.0
1.5
0.5
2.0
Median = 0.9%
Counties without
Interstate
Since 2009, St.
Lawrence County’s
annual growth rate
has trailed peers by
1.8 percentage
points on
GDP/capita, and
1.5 percentage
points on
employment growth
40% of the peer
counties share St.
Lawrence County’s
lack of Interstate
access
EXHIBIT 2: ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY VERSUS PEERS
1
1 Peer selection started with all 3,085 US counties, then prioritized based on similarity to St. Lawrence County based on factors such as GDP per capita,
population, area, industry mix, and distance from urban areas. Peer group was comprised of 20 counties.
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 7
While St. Lawrence County’s economy has struggled, some
of its peer counties (which started in similar situations in
2009) were more successful economically. The historical
performance of these peer counties shows it is possible
to change the trajectory of economic development.
Top-performing peers had a clear economic development
strategy linked to their assets, including taking advantage
of tourist attractions and universities.
St. Lawrence County has a clear set of assets upon which it
can build. It is rich in low-cost agricultural land and plentiful
water supplies, at a time when many food-producing areas
are undergoing water stress and urban pressures. Abundant
low-cost, clean power is available for industry from the
St. Lawrence-FDR Power Project. St. Lawrence is highly
unusual for a county of its size in boasting five colleges
and universities that specialize in complementary areas,
providing ample supplies of talent, and supporting research
and entrepreneurial activity in the region. Moreover, the
natural beauty of the region across all seasons is a draw for
residents and visitors alike.
Below are additional details on the diagnostic results,
organized along the five market lenses. This information was
critical for the development of the strategies and initiatives
for economic development in St. Lawrence County.
Economic sectors and clusters
More than 40 percent (and growing) of GDP and employ-
ment in St. Lawrence County is in non-tradable sectors
that serve the local population, such as government and
health care. Government (including public schools) alone
represents more than 25 percent of the local economy.
Majority tradable sectors like manufacturing and wholesale
trade, on the other hand, have undergone significant job
losses, and growth expectations are flat.
More than 40 percent (and growing) of GDP and employment in St. Lawrence County is in non-tradable
sectors that serve the local population, such as government and health care. Government (including public
schools) alone represents more than 25 percent of the local economy. Majority tradable sectors like
manufacturing and wholesale trade, on the other hand, have undergone significant job losses, and growth
expectations are flat.
EXHIBIT 3 : ST . L A W RENCE COUNT Y EMPL OYMENT
Employment of major manufacturers (e.g., Alcoa, General Motors) has shrunk, with low growth projected
to continue in the aluminum, food processing and printing sectors. Glass and paper manufacturing,
however, are core assets in which St. Lawrence is more specialized than peers and which have medium to
high expectations for growth.
Agriculture is an important part of the County’s economy, but it is undiversified and heavily reliant on
dairy farming (representing about 80 percent of agricultural sales in the County). Productivity in dairy has
improved, but is still lower than regional peers; production per cow is 17 percent less than leading New
York dairy producers. This is likely partly due to a different farm mix in the County, for example, more
small and non-modernized farms. The remaining 20 percent of agricultural sales come from crops, which
have been growing rapidly, at 16 percent a year on average. Crop production sales are also highly
concentrated, comprised mostly of hay and grains (which are common inputs to dairy production), with
an insignificant portion from fruits or vegetables.
Tourists spend approximately $112 million per year in the County, leading to about 1,250 jobs. However,
tourism expenditures have remained flat in recent years, while the region and the State have been growing
at 3-4 percent, and revenue from outdoor activities nationwide has been growing at 5 percent.
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census, American Community Survey, Moody's Analytics, St. Lawrence County
profile
and retail trade
1 As per St. Lawrence County profile, 2011 2 Includes consulting, advertising, IT
3 Total earnings divided by total employment 4 Includes K12 Education
5 Estimated based on assumption of ~300 employees per supercenter 6 As per LinkedIn
Large employers
1
Sector Employees
Health-
care
~1,200
Educa-
tion
~865
Manufa-
cturing
~750
Educa-
tion
~900
Health-
care
~750
6
Health-
care
~900
Govt. ~1,000
Health-
care
~600
Govt.
>5,000
4
Retail
Trade
~900
5
<50
~150
~150
~200
~300
~450
~500
~500
~550
~550
~650
Mining; quarrying;
and oil and gas extraction
Arts and entertainment
Real estate
Utilities
Information
Wholesale trade
Management of companies
Transportation and warehousing
Finance and insurance
Professional services
2
Administrative, support, and waste
Other services
~1,050
Construction
~1,350
Farm
~1,800
Education
~2,100
Manufacturing
~2,600
Accommodation and food
~3,000
Retail trade
~5,000
Healthcare
~6,450
Government
1
~10,350
Employment by Sector, 2013
-2%
+1%
-1%
+1%
+1%
+3%
+1%
+1%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-1%
+1%
+1%
-8%
-1%
-7%
0%
-16%
CAGR
2009-2013
Avg salary 2013 $K
3
Number of employees, 2013
~30
~30
~20
~10
~20
~35
~15
~45
~75
~15
~25
~35
~80
<10
~35
<10
~40
~115
~40
~50
EXHIBIT 3: ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EMPLOYMENT
Human capital
Since 1990, the labor force has modestly contracted, with
employment in manufacturing halving while increasing
three-fold in health care. Talent to fill skilled mid-level roles
(e.g., technician with computer and soft skills) is in shortest
supply. This is partially due to recent substantial funding
reductions to workforce development eorts, which face
diculties reaching scale for in-person training due to the
County’s dispersed population. While higher education
institutions and Fort Drum are talent importers in the region,
interviews suggest high-end professionals such as doctors
or engineers are dicult to attract, particularly individuals
without existing connections to the North Country.
Higher education is a critical and core cluster that is
outsized for the scale of the County. This means the institu-
tions in the County produce more graduates than needed
in many areas—particularly in education, management,
and finance—but are addressing some key industry gaps
(e.g., agricultural and hospitality management). Despite this,
workforce educational attainment is lower than for New
York State, as a whole, and middle of the pack for North
Country counties, with only half the population completing
at least some college.
Given the trajectory of the County over the years, there is
also a need to address perceptions and outlook. As with
many regions that have experienced prolonged periods of
economic hardship, interviews revealed that the mindset of
some residents will need to be reframed to restore con-
dence and become willing to invest in the future.
Innovation and entrepreneurship
St. Lawrence County has experienced net business losses
over the last five years, with over 30 percent more business-
es closing than opening across all sectors, and the number
of per capita small businesses with 10 or fewer employees
lagging behind regional best in class by approximately 20
percent. Small-business loan volume and growth, another
indicator of small-business health, is negligible compared to
statewide figures.
2
Key elements of the entrepreneurial ecosystem, includ-
ing support for existing growth entrepreneurs (including
coaching and mentorship), rich entrepreneurial networks,
easily accessible shared support services, and foster-
ing of an entrepreneurial culture and talent pipeline, are
missing or weak. This substantially limits the potential for
small business to achieve scale. Additionally, despite the
presence of universities, innovation levels are substan-
dard. St. Lawrence County is 43rd out of 62 counties in the
state in patent production, producing half of the patents of
neighboring Jeerson County. Services that support entre-
preneurs and support innovation need to be expanded.
Fortunately, the County has a variety of assets to support
small business and entrepreneurship, including centers at
universities (Reh Center and Shipley Center at Clarkson;
Small Business Development Center at SUNY Canton), a
variety of County and regional micro-lending funds, and
State programs (e.g., Start-Up NY).
Physical and virtual infrastructure
Natural assets are plentiful and available at low cost: The
County has hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland and
timberland, land prices less than half of surrounding regions,
aordable water with low current and projected stress and
power prices lower than all nearby regions except Quebec.
Plentiful water features, fishing locations and other natural
open areas are a competitive advantage, as highlighted
by the selection of the County to host the Bassmaster Elite
Series twice in the last two years.
Analytics and benchmarks highlight transportation in the
County as a challenge, with most towns more than 50 miles
from the nearest four-lane U.S. highway. In local interviews,
transportation infrastructure was not raised as a decisive
issue when making site or production decisions; however,
it may emerge as more critical when engaging with large
potential external investors depending on their industry.
Public and civic institutions
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMEN TSTUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 8
Students at SUNY Canton in Canton, New York.
2 U.S. Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC):
Community Reinvestment Act (CRA)
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 9
implemented to identify and prioritize the highest potential
strategies and initiatives (see Exhibit 4).
The County has been eective at securing ongoing funding
support from a number of sources at the federal, state,
and county levels. Many of those sources have restrictive
mandates, however. Furthermore, there are three dedicat-
ed economic development agencies in the County (the
St. Lawrence County Industrial Development Agency, the
Development Authority of the North Country (DANC), and
the Ogdensburg Bridge and Port Authority (OBPA), with
more than a dozen other entities providing some econom-
ic development services. While this shows a commitment
to economic development, at the same time it creates
significant challenges for coordination of programs and
mobilization of resources and talent. St. Lawrence County is
the largest county by area in New York State, but it does not
have one single population center. There are five popula-
tion centers (Canton, Gouverneur, Massena, Ogdensburg
and Potsdam) in the county that have more than 4,000
residents—but they are spread out geographically. This
is a driver for the number of agencies, but there is also an
acknowledged need for continued and enhanced cooper-
ation and coordination. The county also has relatively high
levels of government per resident, which provides local
access to decision makers but also creates challenges of
duplication, coordination, and scale.
Selection and Prioritization Methodology
An iterative and interactive process combining detailed data
collection and analysis, stakeholders and expert engage-
ment, and applying a systematic evaluation “funnel” was
EXHIBIT 4: STRATEGY AND INITIATIVE SELECTION FUNNEL
While employment and GDP growth numbers are the most visible indicators of economic turnaround,
additional metrics contributed to guiding evaluation of strategies for inclusion in the blueprint. A large
number of potential initiatives to implement as part of the strategies were assessed using the following
criteria:
Impact
Job creation: Growth or preservation of good jobs in target sectors
Economic expansion: Wage growth, productivity improvement, and/or export expansion
Equity and inclusion: Reaching hard-to-employ and disadvantaged populations, reducing poverty
and increasing access to services
Quality of life: Improving the well-being and amenities for local communities
Feasibility
Sustainability: Built on real assets and competitive advantages, resilient to external trends,
reinforcing other priority initiatives and strategies
Alignment: Synergies with local, regional, and state priorities, programs, and funding sources;
existing local execution capacity and ownership
Portfolio fit
Timing and risk: Appropriate mix of short-term wins and longer-term investments, as well as
mix of “safer” vs. more ambitious investments
Visibility: Initiatives that might receive public attention, raise awareness and prestige for the
region, increase local excitement, and energy, and change existing mindsets
Impact in Massena, Waddington, and Louisville: overall portfolio has a material, positive impact
on river communities
Goals: Aspirations
to achieve top-line
economic growth:
GDP, jobs, labor
participation,
productivity, wages/
income
Initiatives prioritized
based on Impact,
Feasibility, and
Portfolio Fit
Strategies: A broad
area to focus to drive
key outcomes
Initiatives: Specific projects
to achieve the strategic goals
Strategies and initiatives
developed based on:
Five-market lever analysis
Peers analysis
Trends
Ideation sessions
Ideas from multiple stakeholders
Adaptable successes
Current in-flight initiatives
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 10
While employment and GDP growth numbers are the most
visible indicators of economic turnaround, additional metrics
contributed to guiding evaluation of strategies for inclusion
in the blueprint. A large number of potential initiatives to
implement as part of the strategies were assessed using the
following criteria:
Impact
Job creation: Growth or preservation of good jobs in
target sectors
Economic expansion: Wage growth, productivity
improvement, and/or export expansion
Equity and inclusion: Reaching hard-to-employ and
disadvantaged populations, reducing poverty and
increasing access to services
Quality of life: Improving the well-being and amenities
for local communities
Feasibility
Sustainability: Built on real assets and competitive
advantages, resilient to external trends, reinforcing other
priority initiatives and strategies
Alignment: Synergies with local, regional, and state
priorities, programs, and funding sources; existing local
execution capacity and ownership
Portfolio fit
Timing and risk: Appropriate mix of short-term wins and
longer-term investments, as well as mix of “safer” vs. more
ambitious investments
Visibility: Initiatives that might receive public attention,
raise awareness and prestige for the region, increase local
excitement, and energy, and change existing mindsets
Impact in Massena, Waddington, and Louisville:
overall portfolio has a material, positive impact on
river communities
Left to Right: North Country Dairy; boating at Whittaker Park, Waddington, New York.
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 11
2. An Economic
Development Blueprint
for St. Lawrence County
A mutually reinforcing set of strategies was identified,
comprised of two sector-specific plays (in agriculture and
manufacturing), combined with two cross-cutting invest-
ments in small business and revitalization. The collective
impact of these strategies is estimated to be the creation
of 1,000 to 1,900 new jobs by 2020, close to $200 million in
annual incremental GDP at growth rates at or above the top
performers in the State.
Beyond the numbers, St. Lawrence County would have
high-performing sectors driven by leading technologies
and consumer preferences; greater levels of entrepreneur-
ship and new business creation; vibrant Main Streets and
tourist activity; and an overall culture change of positive
growth and momentum and renewed sense of pride among
long-time residents, newcomers and visitors.
Vision and Portfolio of Economic
Development Strategies
Four mutually reinforcing strategies emerged that best
satisfied the criteria and charted a course for St. Lawrence
County. They were designed to build upon the Countys
assets, factor in economic and technology trends, and align
with regional and State priorities. Each stands alone in its
fit and potential impact on jobs and GDP, yet collectively
they reinforce one another such that the whole is greater
than the sum of its parts. The signature initiatives are the
most compelling and high-impact opportunities. Along with
the other initiatives in the strategies, they are designed to
complement existing activities taking place in the region.
2. An Economic Development Blueprint
for St . Lawrence Count y
A mutually reinforcing set of strategies was identified, comprised of two sector-specific plays (in
agriculture and manufacturing), combined with two cross-cutting investments in small business and
revitalization. The collective impact of these strategies is the creation of 1,000 to 1,900 new jobs by 2020,
close to $200 million in annual incremental GDP at growth rates at or above the top performers in the
State.
Beyond the numbers, St. Lawrence County would have high-performing sectors driven by leading
technologies and consumer preferences; greater levels of entrepreneurship and new business creation;
vibrant Main Streets and tourist activity; and an overall culture change of positive growth and momentum
and renewed sense of pride among long-time residents, newcomers and visitors.
V
ISION A ND PORTFOL IO OF ECONOMIC DEV EL OPMENT ST RA T EGIES
Four mutually reinforcing strategies emerged that best satisfied the criteria and charted a course for St.
Lawrence County. They were designed to build upon the County’s assets, factor in economic and
technology trends, and align with regional and State priorities. Each stands alone in its fit and potential
impact on jobs and GDP, yet collectively they reinforce one another such that the whole is greater than
the sum of its parts. The signature initiatives are the most compelling and high-impact opportunities.
Along with the other initiatives in the strategies, they are designed to complement existing activities
taking place in the region.
EXHIBIT 5 : ECONOMIC DEV EL OPMENT PORTFOLIO OF STRA T EGIES
Expand small business
Entrepreneur
Accelerator
Foster youth
entrepreneurship
Provide Main St. small
business services
Revitalize communities,
tourism and mindsets
St. Lawrence
R
ev italization Fund
Fishing capital
of the world
Main St. Consortium
Coordinated
tourism marketing
Re-energize advanced materials
manufacturing
Enhanced firm
a
ttraction
Integrated
talent building
Innovation
collaboration fund
Accelerate agriculture
and agri-business
Build greenhouse
c
luster
Boost dairy
productivity
Find markets
EXHIBIT 5: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PORTFOLIO OF STRATEGIES
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 12
Below is a brief summary of the strategies and signature
initiatives (in-depth descriptions are included later in the
document), followed by the aggregate impact on jobs and
GDP, funding requirements and sources and a high-level
timeline.
Accelerate agriculture and agri-business
Vision: Achieve full potential as a producer of high-value
agricultural products by diversifying into high-value outputs,
including covered horticulture; improving dairy productivity
to become the leading dairy producer in the Northeast; and
creating markets through the pursuit of dairy-processing
facilities and mechanisms to match supply of local crops
with regional demand.
Signature Initiative: Build a greenhouse cluster by identi-
fying and attracting investors to construct commercial-scale
greenhouse facilities in St. Lawrence County capable of
year-round operations.
Reenergize advanced materials manufacturing
Vision: Build and grow a targeted advanced materials
manufacturing cluster linked to county, regional, and
Canadian markets by leveraging St. Lawrence County’s
manufacturing base, engineering expertise, and natural
assets to reverse employment decline, grow existing
businesses, boost productivity, and train advanced
manufacturing talent. Advanced manufacturing involves
both new ways to manufacture existing products, and the
manufacture of new products with new advanced technol-
ogies—across engineering materials (e.g., metals, ceramic
and glasses, polymers and elastomers, and composites).
Signature Initiative: Aggressively attract advanced materi-
als companies through a focused and sustained campaign,
defined roles for each player in the ecosystem, and custom-
er and performance data analytics.
Expand small business
Vision: Build a powerful entrepreneurial ecosystem that
generates economic and job growth through scaling small
businesses and increasing business formation by investing
in entrepreneurs and the supports and culture they need
to succeed.
Signature Initiative: An Entrepreneur Accelerator, which
will provide a comprehensive support program for high-
potential entrepreneurs who want to grow their businesses,
and in the process help create the best environment in rural
upstate New York for growing businesses. This support
program will include training, coaching and mentoring, and
networking with other entrepreneurs.
Revitalize communities, tourism, mindsets
Vision: Build on the County’s many natural and cultural
assets to make it an even better place to live and visit, with
increased coordination to improve Main Streets and attract
visitors, while creating vibrant communities for residents.
Signature Initiative: A $10 million St. Lawrence County
Revitalization Fund, which would provide grants and loans
to improve Main Streets, facilities, events and marketing.
Governor’s 2015 BassMaster Challenge held at St. Lawrence-FDR Power Project.
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 13
County of 44,300 to 45,800 jobs by 2020, which would
imply an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 2.1 percent to 2.8 percent. The absolute number of jobs
would be 2.4 percent to 4.4 percent above 2020
projections (in the absence of any intervention). As a
result, the unemployment rate in 2020 is estimated to be
2 percent to 3 percent lower than with no intervention.
5
Should St. Lawrence County choose to focus only
on each strategys signature initiative, the portfolio of
strategies outlined in this Study could create 410 to
920 direct jobs by 2020.
3 Figures include a 40 percent reduction in impact for execution risks
and overlap.
4 Based on projections from Moody’s Analytics. Moody’s employment
numbers are lower than those reported by the NY Department of Labor
and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis due to a dierence in survey
methods and types of workers included.
5 Assuming labor force participation rate in 2020 is the same as it
would otherwise be with no intervention, regardless of number of
jobs created.
Impact Potential
By pursuing the strategies broadly outlined above,
St. Lawrence County can materially and positively impact
employment and GDP growth. By closing the gap to best in
class in several areas, like tourism spending or dairy produc-
tivity, and attracting new firms to establish commercial-scale
greenhouses or additive manufacturing facilities, by 2020,
St. Lawrence County could create between 1,025 to 1,900
direct jobs and increase GDP by $105 to $190 million. If
indirect and induced jobs are included, the employment
impact would increase by 250 to 500 jobs, for a total of
1,300 to 2,400.
3
Job growth
The County is projected to gain approximately 2,700 jobs
between 2015 and 2020 (from 39,900 current employment
up to 42,600, with no strategic interventions).
4
With all initiatives implemented, the strategies and
initiatives described in this Study could create an
additional 1,025 to 1,900 direct jobs above 2020
projections. This would result in total employment in the
EXHIBIT 6 : BOTTOM-UP SIZING OF DIRECT JOBS
EXHIBIT 6: BOTTOM-UP SIZING OF DIRECT JOBS
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 14
between 2.4 percent and 2.8 percent, which far exceeds
the highest GDP growth rates in the North Country.
The priority for delivery is each strategy’s signature initia-
tive, which would grow GDP by $42 million to $83 million,
reaching a total GDP of $3.90 billion to $3.94 billion,
in 2020.
6 Moody’s Analytics, total GDP CAGR projections from 2015 to 2020
7 In general, we show GDP in real dollars (i.e., without showing the eects
of inflation).
8 Moody’s Analytics, total GDP CAGR projections from 2015 to 2020.
GDP growth
Based on GDP growth rate projections
6
, St. Lawrence
County is projected to gain about $330 million in real
annual GDP
7
between 2015 and 2020 (from around
$3.52 billion to $3.85 billion), corresponding to a CAGR
of 1.8 percent. This growth rate is similar to the North
Country average of 1.76 percent projected from 2015 to
2020, but lower than the State average of 2 percent.
8
By 2020, the portfolio of strategies outlined in this Study
could grow GDP by an additional $105 to $190 million,
to reach $3.96 to $4.04 billion. This would increase St.
Lawrence County’s average annual GDP growth rate to
EXHIBIT 7 : BOTTOM-UP SIZING OF GDP
EXHIBIT 7: BOTTOM-UP SIZING OF GDP
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 15
Investment Required and Sources of Funds
Should St. Lawrence County choose to pursue all the
initiatives described in this Study, it is estimated that total
investment required over five years will reach $300-400
million. This number will vary depending in the final design,
ambition, and scale of initiatives when executed. Included
in these costs are an estimated $40-55 million in
performance-based investment incentives. Beyond
these investment incentives, another $30-40 million will
be required in public (or philanthropic) funding—mostly
to fund operating expenses critical to starting-up and
implementing the initiatives. The below exhibit is a summary
of the estimated total investments required over the five
years, split by signature and non-signature initiatives.
The final funding needs for initiatives may vary widely
based on certain factors, such as the number of firms
that locate in the County.
St. Lawrence County is projected to have $75-115 million in
local, regional, and state public funding to allocate toward
economic development over the next five years. It is import-
ant to note, however, that many of these funds have already
been committed or have specific narrow mandates; for
example, some can only fund capital investments. However,
a preliminary analysis of signature initiative public funding
needs suggests some could be potentially addressed with
existing/projected local funds. Close coordination of the
quantity and timing of funding requests to sources and
organizations will be necessary to help ensure that signa-
ture initiative funding needs are met.
The most important local and regional public funding
sources include:
The St. Lawrence County Industrial Development Agency
(SLCIDA): With about $2.1 million in funding, the SLCIDA is
one of the larger and more active economic development
agencies in the County.
The River Valley Redevelopment Agency (RVRDA):
Administered by the SLCIDA, the RVRDA is dedicated
to furthering the quality of life of local communities
aected by the hydroelectric facilities and the residents
of St. Lawrence County as a whole. It currently has
$8.5 million available for potential use, and has available
20 megawatts (MW) of power to award.
EXHIBIT 8 : SUMMARY OF INV ESTMENT REQUIRED
St. Lawrence County is projected to have $75-115 million in local, regional, and state public funding to
allocate toward economic development over the next five years. It is important to note, however, that
many of these funds have already been committed or have specific narrow mandates; for example, some
can only fund capital investments. However, a preliminary analysis of signature initiative public funding
needs suggests some could be potentially addressed with existing/projected local funds. Close
coordination of the quantity and timing of funding requests to sources and organizations will be necessary
to help ensure that signature initiative funding needs are met.
The most important local and regional public funding sources include:
The St. Lawrence County Industrial Development Agency (SLCIDA): With about $2.1 million in
funding, the SLCIDA is one of the larger and more active economic development agencies in the
County.
The River Valley Redevelopment Agency (RVRDA): Administered by the SLCIDA, the RVRDA is
dedicated to furthering the quality of life of local communities affected by the hydroelectric
facilities and the residents of St. Lawrence County as a whole. It currently has $8.5 million available
for potential use, and has available 20 megawatts (MW) of power to award.
North Country Economic Development Fund (NCEDF): Administered by the Development
Authority of the North Country (DANC), the NCEDF is a revolving loan fund of roughly $9.4
million focused on the North Country, Herkimer County, and Akwesasne territory. The County
might expect roughly 20-25 percent of that amount, given its geographic and population sizes.
USD M
Non-signature
I
nitiatives
Capex
3
Incentives
4
Opex
2
Private
Total – non-signature initiatives 5-5.55-5.57.1-8.6 42-57
Total – all initiatives 40-55.515-15.518.8-24.8 267-367
Small business
00
9-11.5
0
Signature
i
nitiatives
Revitalization
010
0.8-1.1
20-25
Agriculture
~5-1001.2-1.5 25-75
Manufacturing
~30-400
1.7-2.1
180-210
Manufacturing
0
02.8-3.2
12-17
Small business
00
3.8-4.4
0
Agriculture
5-5.55-.5.5
.75-1
30-40
Revitalization
00
0
0
Total – Signature Initiatives 35-5010.012.7-16.2 225-310
Public
1
1 Funding from public or quasi-public agencies (e.g., state or local government, economic development agencies)
2 Funding for operational expenses (e.g., staff, marketing, grant funding, operational costs, etc.)
3 Funding for one-time capital expenses (e.g., building, equipment, capitalizing a fund, etc.)
4 Performance-based incentives to incentivize private investment (e.g., tax incentives, capital co-investments, etc.)
EXHIBIT 8: SUMMARY OF INVESTMENT REQUIRED
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 16
3. Next Steps
This section outlines the requirements of the governance
model required to drive implementation. It also articulates
the high-level long-term implementation milestones, as
well as the short-term actions required to achieve initial
momentum.
Governance
Implementation of the economic development study
requires a highly functioning governance model. While
the specific structure of the governance models can vary,
the one selected must support some important outcomes,
including:
Alignment of key County-wide stakeholders
Coordination of critical eorts to maximize impact for
resources
Accountability for delivery of action and results
Learning and evolution of the program, based on results
and the evolving context
The chosen governance structure should incorporate
four key components:
Sponsorship. Often achieved through a committee
of influential and highly respected leaders, this element
provides: overall guidance and accountability for
implementation of the study; cross-regional coordination;
identification and acquisition of needed resources; vocal
public advocacy; and key support for partner attraction.
Overall program management. Provides “air trac
control” for overall implementation, including: process
management; financial management; impact measure-
ment methodology; stakeholder coordination; and
knowledge sharing.
Strategy management. Manages the execution and
renewal of each strategy including: initiative coordination;
partner management (where partners cut across multiple
initiatives); strategy-specific fundraising; issue identifica-
tion and resolution; and opportunity identification and
strategy evolution.
Initiative execution. Responsible for delivering a
specific initiative, including: execution of initiative work
plan; impact data collection and tracking (based on
program management methodology); ongoing initiative
refinement and design.
North Country Economic Development Fund (NCEDF):
Administered by the Development Authority of the North
Country (DANC), the NCEDF is a revolving loan fund
of roughly $9.4 million focused on the North Country,
Herkimer County, and Akwesasne territory. The County
might expect roughly 20-25 percent of that amount, given
its geographic and population sizes.
Northern New York Economic Development Fund:
Established via state legislation and administered by
NYPA, the Northern New York Economic Development
Fund allocates an estimated $2 million annually in grant
funding for businesses in the region.
Importantly, New York States Consolidated Funding
Application (CFA) is likely to be an important funding source,
given its large size and annual cycle. If St. Lawrence County
is able to win its proportional share of the average allotment
that the North Country has to date won annually, the County
should be able to win $50-60 million in CFA funding over
the next five years.
In addition to these local and regional sources, the strate-
gies can also be funded through additional State, federal
and private funds, including private investment, bank loans,
and philanthropic grants.
NYPA Hawkins Point visitor center grounds near St. Lawrence-FDR
hydroelectric project
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 17
Long-Term Implementation Milestones
Implementation should focus on hitting critical milestones
that will drive real economic impact.
High-Level Implementation Milestones
Timing
Year 1 Years 2-3 Years 4 and beyond
Accelerate agriculture
and agri-business
Greenhouse attraction eort
launched
Dairy processor search
launched
Dairy Tech Fund
established with
Round 1 funding
First large-scale greenhouse
built
Dairy processor operating
Dairy Tech Fund receives
Round 2 funding and
disperses first funds
• Food hub launched
Three large-scale green-
houses built, with expanded
small-scale sites
Best Practice Dairy
Facility launched
Shared infra-structure
facilities built
• Food hub scaled regionally
Reenergize advanced
materials manufacturing
Flagship campaign for
Advanced Manufacturing
firms launched with external
Global Search partner
Software, enhanced firm
attraction methods in place
Manufacturing talent and
skills pipeline model
developed
One-two flagship
companies attracted
Pilot for new manufacturing
workforce programs
Advanced Manufacturing
Innovation Fund launched
and funds three projects
Two-three additional smaller
firms tied to cluster attracted
Expanded number and
size of workforce programs
Expand small business
Entrepreneurial Accelerator
launched
Entrepreneurship culture and
targeted business formation
eorts launched
Expanded Entrepreneurial
Accelerator program
(e.g., double of RISE Fellows)
Pilots for Youth Entrepre-
neurship launched
Entrepreneurial Accelerator
receives national acclaim
and funding
• In-flow of entrepreneurs
Youth Entrepreneurship
programs in 15+ Districts
Revitalize communities,
tourism and mindsets
SLC Revitalization Fund
formed with Round 1 funding
• Initial funding of Theme 1
SLCRF Round 2 funding
expands fund to $10M
• Theme 1 and 2 executed
• Themes 3+ executed
This high-level view emphasizes the significance of
this eort.
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 18
The eorts in early 2016 must focus on six key streams
of work:
1. Adoption of the study as a St. Lawrence County
strategy: As an initial step, the County leadership that
was involved in the study must adopt it as their strategy
for action.
2. Establishing governance and leadership for the
eort: Implementation will demand substantial leader-
ship, as well as coordinated decision-making and
action. Many of the strategies will not be universally
supported, or will require some uncomfortable chang-
es in the County. Leaders must establish a governance
model that maximizes alignment, accountability, and
mutual support—and one that reinforces a County-
wide mindset that acknowledges the interdependence
of the towns and villages.
3. Identifying funding for immediate needs and pursu-
ing longer-term resources: Initial implementation
for Year 1 will require approximately $2-4 million in
resources, which will need to be identified from what is
currently available to the County. Additionally, an eort
should be mobilized quickly to secure funding for
Year 2 and beyond.
4. Gain support from key constituencies and engag-
ing stakeholders: The Advisory Board members and
chosen strategy leaders must engage critical constit-
uencies, helping them understand the content of the
study, convincing them of the rationale and credibil-
ity of the process by which it was constructed and
discussing what implications it might have for their
actions.
5. Refine the blueprint: As additional insights are
gathered through conversations with stakeholders,
they should be incorporated to ensure the program
fully reflects eorts to address the key strategies.
6. Launch initial implementation: All strategies have
steps that must be undertaken immediately. For
example, in the agriculture strategy, a key first step
is convening the Greenhouse Engagement Taskforce.
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 19
St. Lawrence County
Economic Development Study
Appendix: Supporting Materials
December 2015
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 20
Contents
Appendix: Glossary .......................................................................................................... 21
Appendix: Methodologies and Assumptions ......................................................... 22
Appendix: Summary of Stakeholder Outreach ...................................................... 25
Appendix: Public Funding ............................................................................................. 26
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 21
Appendix: Glossary
3DThree dimensional
BAUBusiness As Usual
BOCES—Boards of Cooperative Educational Services
CAGRCompound Annual Growth Rate
CAMPCenter for Advanced Materials Processing
CapExCapital Expenditure
CFA—Consolidated Funding Application
CRACommunity Reinvestment Act
DAEconomic Development Agency
DANCDevelopment Authority of the North Country
DEiRDistinguished Entrepreneurs in Residence
DOLDepartment of Labor
DOTDepartment of Transportation
EAEntrepreneurial Accelerator
EIREntrepreneur in Residence
EL—Entrepreneurial Leaders
ENEntrepreneur Network
ESDCEmpire State Development Corporation
FCCFederal Communications Commission
FFIECU.S. Federal Institutions Examination Council
GETGreenhouse Engagement Taskforce
GDPGross Domestic Product
GEGeneral Electric
GMGeneral Motors
HUD U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development
IDAIndustrial Development Agency
JA—Junior Achievement
K-12Kindergarten through 12th Grade
K-16Kindergarten through 4 year college
LDCLocal Development Corporation
LGTF—North Country Local Government Task Force
MbpsMegabits per second
MEDMassena Electric District
NCEDFNorth Country Economic Development Fund
NCGCNorth Country Grown Cooperative
NFTENational Foundation for Teaching Entrepreneurship
NNY—Northern New York
NYPA—New York Power Authority
NYS—New York State
NYSERDA New York State Energy Research
and Development Authority
OBPAOgdensburg Bridge and Port Authority
OJTOn the Job training
OpExOperational Expense
PMO—Project Management Oce
R&D—Research and Development
REALRural Entrepreneurship through Action Learning
RIMS IIRegional Input-Output Multiplier System II
RISERural Investment in Students of Excellence
ROIReturn On Investment
RVRDAThe River Valley Redevelopment Agency
SBDC—Small Business Development Corporation
SLCIDA St. Lawrence County Industrial Development
Agency
SLCRF—St. Lawrence County Revitalization Fund
SMEs—Small and Medium Sized Enterprises
SPEC—Seaway Private Equity Corporation
STEAM—Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Math
STEM—Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math
SUNY—State University of New York
USDAU.S. Department of Agriculture
USDOEU.S. Department of Energy
WIB—Workforce Investment Board
YEYouth Entrepreneurship
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 22
Discount: an across-the-board decrease in projected jobs
and GDP created via implementation of the initiatives to
account for potential feasibility concerns and/or overlap
among jobs and/or GDP created by particular initiatives.
Capital Expenditure (CapEx): the cost to buy or add
to the value of a fixed asset with a useful life extending
beyond a year. An example for our strategies would be the
cost of building a greenhouse.
Operating Expenses (OpEx): the ongoing cost of
maintaining or growing a business, including, but not
limited to, salary and wages, advertising, oce expenses,
supplies, maintenance, taxes, legal fees and accounting
changes. Examples for our strategies would also include
the cost of program management, global search for firms,
establishing governance, and stakeholder outreach.
Public Funding: pools of money generated from govern-
mental local, regional, state, or national sources, either in
loan or grant form.
Private Funding: pools of money generated from private
sources, including businesses, banks, or philanthropic
organizations.
The multiplier impact of regional activity
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis produces Regional
Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) multipliers to show
how local demand shocks aect total gross output, value
added, earnings and employment in the region. The Study
uses North Country-specific RIMS II multipliers to estimate
the total economic impact of Blueprint initiatives on employ-
ment and GDP in the region.
We estimated the potential indirect and induced jobs
produced by each initiative by applying RIMS II employment
multipliers to the direct jobs created in a given industry.
If necessary, to estimate GDP, RIMS II value-added multi-
plier were applied—which shows total dollar change in
value added that occurs in all industries for each additional
dollar of output delivered to final demand by a particular
industry—to direct sales created in that industry. This was
only necessary if the data produced sales or gross output;
if the data already produced GDP, applying the value-add-
ed multiplier was unnecessary. For example, we were
able to determine potential manufacturing GDP added via
the Blueprint initiatives by using Moody’s Analytics data
These technical notes provide an overview of our key data
sources and analytical approaches. This is not intend-
ed to be exhaustive, but to highlight the critical inputs
and assumptions. This appendix on Methodologies and
Assumptions has six sections:
Definitions: describes our use of key terms and descrip-
tors used throughout the Study.
The multiplier impact of regional activity: outlines how
North Country-specific multipliers were used to compute
indirect/induced employment and value added.
Employment and GDP: outlines methodology and
assumptions behind calculating potential direct jobs and
GDP impact.
Investment requirements: outlines methodology and
assumptions behind calculating public and private invest-
ment needs for each initiative.
Funding sources: explains relationship between private
and public funding as well as the methodology and
assumptions used to identify potential local, regional,
state, and federal sources that could be accessed to help
provide a percentage of the public funds required for
implementation.
Sources: lists the sources of analysis and data used for
impact, investment, and funding calculations.
Definitions:
Jobs: In tallying potential jobs created through implemen-
tation of the study’s initiatives, both overall in chapter two
and in individual strategy sections, the Study refers to
direct jobs (i.e., jobs created directly by the organizations
and funds established and impacted through implemen-
tation of the initiatives). Indirect jobs (i.e., jobs created
to serve the industries and businesses creating direct
jobs) and induced jobs (i.e., jobs created in the broader
community as a result of new direct and indirect employee
income spent on other goods and services) are not includ-
ed when jobs are referenced.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): In tallying GDP, the
document refers to value added, which is the net output
of a sector after summing all outputs and subtracting all
intermediate inputs. GDP is calculated in terms of real
2009 dollars (i.e., the Study does not include inflation in
calculations).
Appendix: Methodologies and Assumptions
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 23
2. Potential implementation risks: Certain factors could
impede implementation of the initiatives over the
five-year time span. Examples could include unforeseen
budget/funding shortfalls, inability to attract as many
manufacturing firms or greenhouses as predicted, or
lower small business creation.
3. A maximum jobs cap based on achievable unemployment
and labor participation rates: A discount on added jobs is
necessary to ensure the predicted unemployment rate is
not unrealistic.
a. According to the Federal Reserve, the long-term
natural rate of unemployment is 5 percent to 5.2
percent.
1
While unemployment rates can dip below
that for a short period of time, it will rise again even
in a stable or growing economy due to workers
leaving jobs or entering the labor market. We there-
fore used the natural rate of unemployment as the
most ambitious unemployment rate this Study could
help St. Lawrence County achieve.
b. The unemployment rate is contingent on both the
number of people employed and labor-force size.
Over the past decade, St. Lawrence County’s overall
labor force has declined by 0.4 percent per year.
So, if St. Lawrence County’s labor force shrinks or
remains steady, but this eort helps the County
create jobs, there must be a theoretical maximum on
the number of jobs that can be filled. This theoret-
ical maximum, over five years, is around 1,700. To
ensure employment predications do not dramatical-
ly exceed this maximum, we applied a 40 percent
discount to the projections, resulting in total jobs
added to a maximum of 1,900. This would allow for a
slight rise in the labor force due to implementation of
these strategies (e.g., inward migration, improvement
of the labor force participation rate).
4. GDP and job growth correlation: GDP is a product of the
number of employees and average productivity. If the
number of people employed grows, GDP must grow
as well. Due to this correlation, we applied the same
40 percent discount to GDP impact as we did to
expected jobs.
1 http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14424.htm
(discussed below) and industry benchmarks. In this case,
applying the value-added multiplier was unnecessary.
However, sources of data for both dairy productivity and
annual tourism spend were in sales. So, once we deter-
mined potential added agriculture sales due to increased
dairy productivity and added tourism sales due to imple-
mentation of the Revitalization Fund, we applied the
corresponding industry-specific RIMS II value-added
multipliers to determine GDP.
Employment and GDP
In calculating direct jobs and GDP added by these initia-
tives, we first determined which metrics, informed as much
as possible by direct, objective data for St. Lawrence
County, regional and national peer counties, and industry
benchmarks where available, were the most indicative for
current and future direct employment and GDP figures in a
given industry. We then compared St. Lawrence County’s
current status, either on an absolute or per capita basis as
well as using historical and projected compound annual
growth rates (CAGR) where available, to regional and/
or national peer county best in class and industry bench-
marks. Doing so informed the level of success possible for a
given initiative. Where appropriate and necessary, we used
assumptions (e.g., the number of commercial-scale green-
houses St. Lawrence County might attract over a five-year
period or each class size of entrepreneurs included in the
Entrepreneur Accelerator) that were rigorously tested with
internal, external, and St. Lawrence County subject matter
experts. For each initiative, we then set conservative and
aspirational employment and GDP creation goals based on
realistic levels of success.
Finally, bottom-up estimates of jobs and GDP impact
numbers were discounted by 40 percent at the strategy
level (which aggregated up to an equivalent reduction
overall) due to the following factors:
1. Potential overlap among initiatives: in a number of instanc-
es, added jobs or GDP could be claimed by two initiatives.
For example, jobs created under Manufacturing Workforce
Development training could also be claimed in a growing
business whose owner received training under the Small
Business Entrepreneur Accelerator. Another example
could be businesses created through funding provided by
the Revitalization Fund, but which also received help from
the Main Street Small Business Concierge service.
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 24
Investment requirements
To project potential investment requirements for each
initiative over five years, we used known CapEx ratios to
job and/or GDP growth where available (e.g., a commer-
cial-scale greenhouse bringing 120-150 jobs will need
around $24 million in CapEx). Where possible, we also used
known OpEx ratios for particular aspects of each initiative.
Where appropriate and necessary, we employed CapEx
or OpEx assumptions—tested with internal and external
subject matter experts—to create as accurate as possible
preliminary initiative cost estimates. We then set low and
high investment requirements for each initiative based on
conservative and aspirational job and GDP impact goals
set above.
Funding sources
The initiatives outlined in this Study will require funding
from public and private sources, as well as other incentives.
Overall, is assumed a 1:10 ratio of public-to-private funding
over the course of five years. Certain initiatives will require
a greater ratio of public funding, and others will require
a greater ratio of private funding. In general, we expect
services provided as a public good and which will not
provide significant financial return on investment for
a private investor, such as the Entrepreneur Accelerator or
Main Street Small Business Concierge, will require a greater
ratio of public funding. Conversely, we expect initiatives
that could provide significant financial return on investment,
such as a commercial greenhouse, to attract higher levels
of private funding.
To identify potential local, regional, state, and federal
sources for the public funds required for implementation,
we completed extensive primary research with St. Lawrence
County, internal, and external funding subject matter
experts, as well as secondary research via proprietary data
sets and benchmarks.
Summary of main sources used
Primary interviews with internal, external, and
St. Lawrence County subject matter experts
Secondary research, leveraging proprietary data sets
and economic development experts
Moody’s Analytics for historical and projected
employment in total and by industry
Various press and industry websites for insight into
particular industry/sector benchmarks regarding
investment to jobs/GDP ratios and CapEx/OpEx needs
USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service for dairy
productivity and employment by county
U.S. Census statistics for total businesses and business
size by county
Tourism Economics for historical tourism spend by county
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for industry wage data
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis for regional
employment and value-added multipliers
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 25
Appendix: Summary of Stakeholder Outreach
7
Appendix: Summary of stakeholder outreach
The below list is a sample of the stakeholders engaged during the process. Many of these individuals were
engaged several times. The list is not exhaustive and many names have surely been omitted by mistake. We
thank all those who contributed their time, attention and ideas.
EXHIBIT: STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION
Municipal
Kathryn Bamberger, Empire State Dev.
Timmy Currier, Village of Massena
Ruth Doyle, St. Lawrence County
Joseph Gray, Town of Massena
Supervisor
Mark Hall, Town of Fine Supervisor
Steve Hunt, Empire State Development
Patrick Kelly, St. Lawrence County IDA
Edward Kowalewski, Empire State Dev.
Ernie Labaff, St. Lawrence County IDA
Matilda Larson, SLC Planning Office
Larry Legault, Town of Louisville
Joseph Lightfoot, SLC Board of
Legislators
Bob McNeil, RVRDA
Linda McQuinn, Town of Canton
Fred Morill, Ogdensburg Bridge and
Port Authority
Ed Murphy, RVRDA
Brian Murray, County Planning Board
Janet Otto-Cassada, Waddington
Mayo r
John Pinkerton, Ogdensburg
Tom Plastino, St. Lawrence County
IDA/Workforce Investment Board
John Rishe, Ogdensburg Bridge & Port
Authort
Leigh Rodriguez, Canton
Andrea Smith, Ogdensburg
Russell Strait, RVRDA
Carrie Tuttle, DANC
Patty van Pattern, Town of Waddington
Sandy Wright, Town of Waddington
Keith Zimmerman, StCountyPlanning
Office
Tony Arquiett, GM Tas kforce
Patrick Jackson, Corning
Laurie Marr, Alcoa
Education
Patrick Ames, Cornell Cooperative
Extension
SV Babu, CAMP
Thomas Burns, SLL Boces
Elisabeth Cain, CAMP
Kelly Chezum, Clarkson University
Tony Collins, Clarkson University
Benjamin Dixon, St.Lawrence
University
Erin Draper, Reh Center
Matt Draper, Shipley Center
Marilyn Freeman, CAMP
Joe Timmerman, SUNY
Potsdam
Lenore VanderZee, SU NY
Canton
John Wicke, SUNY Potsdam
Zvi Szafran, SU NY Canton
Carl McLaughlin, Fort Drum Regional
Liaison
Lindsay Tarbell, St. Regis Mohawk
Tribe
Christopher Thompson, St. Regis
Mohawk Tribe
Business and industry
Dave Acker, St. Lawrence Health
Sys te m
Kevi n Acres, Dairy farmer
Akins Family, Dairy farmers
Tony Arquiett, GM Taskforce
Ron Bacon, Community Bank, NA
Linda Beamish, DeFelsko
Mike Beamish, DeFelsko
Jason Bell, Potters Industries
David Bicheau, Clifton Fine
Hospital
Ra y Bodish, Never Tire farm
Mike Burgess, Kinney Drugs
Will Chapman, ACCO
Rainbow Crabtree, Nature’s
Storehouse
Pat Curran, Curran Renewables
Ryan Demick, Yesteryear Vintage
Doors
Gary DeYoung, TII Tourism
Council
Mark D zwo nczyk, SLIC
Manna Doyle, Tulmar
Doug Drumm, Potsdam Specialty
Paper
Rus t Eaddy, Outdoors Enthusiast
Kate Fish, Adirondack NC
Association
Mike Frazer, Frazer Computing
Blake Gendebien, Twin Mills Farms
Patrick Jackson, Corning
Steve Knight, United Helpers
David Lucht, Corning
Laurie Marr, Alcoa
Don McCall, Med-Eng
Jim McKenna, Regional Office
of Sustainable Tourism
Pat McKeown, Vanguard
Consulting
Travis McKnight, McKnight
Farms
Andy McMahon, Massena
Electric
Don Meissner, Fis hcap
Bil l Mu rra y, CITEC
Adam Paul, SLC Film Fest
Ed Pcolar, Agrimark
Bob Penski, Penski Staffing
Marijean Remington, Atlantic
Testing
Brooke Rouse, Chamber of
Commerce
Robert Seamon, Clifton Fine
Hospital
Mike Seymour, Outdoors Writer
Greg Sharland, Alliance Energy
John Simone, CT Main St.
Center
Patricia Spitzley, RACER
Karen St. Hilaire, Vanguard
Tom Sullivan, Massena BDC
David Swanson, NC Savings
Bank
Leo Tilman, Capitol Peak Asset
Managers
Walter Todd, Clifton Fine
Hospital
Ted Totten, CIVES
Denise Young, NC
Telemedicine Project
Plus over 30 more at
North Country level
Regional stakeholders
EXHIBIT: STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION
The below list is a sample of the stakeholders engaged
during the process. Many of these individuals were engaged
several times. The list is not exhaustiveand many names
have surely been omitted by mistake. We thank all those
who contributed their time, attention and ideas.
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 26
Appendix: Public Funding
Public funding will be necessary to support the execution of
the strategies outlined in this Study. There are elements of
the strategies that will not be profitable in the near-term, so
it is unlikely they can be financed with private investment.
For these, public or philanthropic resources will need to
be mobilized. There are many potential sources of public
funding at the local, regional, state, and federal levels.
Name Objectives and Mandate Fund allocation Available
Funds
$ Millions
Geography Allocation
to County
Availability
5-year
$ Millions
County
RVRDA Administer NYPA funds
for economic development
activities and programs.
Funds are intended to further
the quality of life of local
communities impacted by
hydroelectric facilities and
the residents of St. Lawrence
County.
One-time $8.5 County 100 percent $8.5
IDA-LDC Real estate acquisition,
building construction and
rehabilitation, or machinery
and equipment acquisition
and rehabilitation, or working
capital and inventory with
adequate security for
manufacturing, industrial,
commercial and warehousing
operations.
One-time $1.1 County 100 percent $1.1
IDA Aims to promote, encour-
age, attract and develop job
opportunities and economically
sound commerce and industry
in St. Lawrence County.
One-time $2.1 County 100 percent $2.1
Greater
Massena
Economic
Development
Fund–
Loan Fund
Induce business enterprises to
establish, maintain or expand
plants, facilities or operations
in the town of Massena and
St. Lawrence County.
A loan fund where applicants
are eligible for loans of up
to $200,000.
One-time $1.6 County 100 percent $1.6
Seaway private
Equity Corp.
(SPEC) Fund
Early-stage investment funds
to attract development of new
technologies. Fund able to
make equity investments up
to $1M, with a 1:2 match.
One-time $2.5 County 100 percent $2.5
The below table summarizes some of these. While the
aggregate amount is far greater than the public resources
required to implement this Study, many of these sources
already have existing mandates, commitments, or other
challenges complicating their immediate allocation toward
this Study’s strategies.
(continued)
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 27
Name Objectives and Mandate Fund allocation Available
Funds
$ Millions
Geography Allocation
to County
Availability
5-year
$ Millions
County
(continued)
Ogdensburg
Growth Fund
Loan Fund
Enhance the quality of life
in Ogdensburg by fostering
cooperation between city
government, economic devel-
opment agencies and the
private sector to strengthen
businesses and create innova-
tive economic, housing, and
career development oppor-
tunities for area residents.
Loan fund where applicants
are eligible for loans of up to
$150,000.
One-time $1 Greater
Ogdensburg
area
100 percent $1.0
Casino
Compact
The Akwesasne Mohawk
Casino on the St. Regis
Reservation regularly
provides 25 percent of net
profits from its slot machines
to NYS, which distributes
12.5 percent of its cut to St.
Lawrence County. The 50%
of the resources allocated to
St. Lawrence County are no
longer allocated for economic
development.
Annual $1.5 Towns of
Massena
and Brasher
50 percent—
the allotment
to the towns
of Massena
and Brasher
$7.5
(continued)
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 28
Name Objectives and Mandate Fund allocation Available
Funds
$ Millions
Geography Allocation
to County
Availability
5-year
$ Millions
Regional
North Country
Economic
Development
Fund– Loan
Fund
Loan fund where applicants
are eligible for loans of up to
$300,000. In some instanc-
es the total loan size can be
$500,000.
One-time $9.4 Regional 25 percent $2.35
North Country
Value Added
Agriculture
Fund– Loan
Fund
Establish/maintain agricul-
tural operations/facilities.
Loan fund where applicants
are eligible for loans of up to
$250,000.
One-time $1 Regional 25 percent $0.25
North Country
Transforma-
tional Tourism
Community
Loan Fund
Enhance quality/quantity of
lodging in region and support
tourism-related facilities.
Loan fund where applicants
are eligible for loans of up to
$250,000.
One-time $1 Regional 25 percent $0.25
North Country
Digital Film
Projector
Conversion
Fund– Loan
Fund
Bridge fundraising eorts
to purchase digital video
projectors. Loan fund where
applicants are eligible for
loans of up to $50,000.
One-time $0.4 Regional 25 percent $0.1
North Country
Alliance Loan
Fund
Business/employment
establishment/expansion.
Loan fund where applicants
are eligible for loans of up to
$225,000.
One-time $1.4 Regional 25 percent $0.35
Farmland
Drainage –
Loan Fund
Farmland drainage. Loan fund
where applicants are eligible
for loans of up to $20,000.
One-time $0.15 Regional 25 percent $0.04
Development
Authority Value
Added Agricul-
ture Fund – Loan
Fund
Creation of value-added
products for retail
consumption.
One-time $0.0 Regional 25 percent $0.0
Community
Development
Loan Fund
Large number of projects.
Fund where applicants are
eligible for loans of up to
$250,000.
One-time $2.0 Regional 25 percent $0.5
Point Positive Equity investments for new
or growing early-stage
companies.
One-time $1.0 Regional 25 percent $0.3
(continued)
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY • DECEMBER 2015 • 29
Name Objectives and Mandate Fund allocation Available
Funds
$ Millions
Geography Allocation
to County
Availability
5-year
$ Millions
NYPA
Northern New
York Economic
Development
Funds (NNY
Proceeds)
Details of grant fund are still
being finalized. Estimated
that annual allocation will be
approximately $2M from the
sale of excess power gener-
ation. Specific size of annual
allocation will be driven by
market factors and changes.
Annual $2 County 100 percent $10
Temporary
North Country
Discount
Program
Funds currently not available,
allocated to funding electric-
ity bill discounts for eligible
businesses and dairy farmers.
Annual $10.0 County 100 percent $30.0
State
Consolidated
Funding
Application
Funding from various State
agencies to support economic
development projects that
align with REDC strategic
plans in the areas of commu-
nity development, direct
assistance to businesses and
other organizations, water-
front revitalization, energy,
environmental improvements,
sustainability, education and
workforce development and
low-cost financing.
Annual $51.7 Regional 25 percent $64.6
123 Main Street
White Plains, NY
10601-3170
www.nypa.gov
St. Lawrence-Franklin D. Roosevelt Power Project
Printed on recycled paper. 12/2015